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Prediction for CME (2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-14T08:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32795/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is visible mostly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.1 flare and eruption from Active Region 13784 (N14E03) starting around 2024-08-14T06:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 surrounding the eruption site, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form around 08:30Z. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal sharply increasing from 7nT at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 17nT at 13:35Z and a period of negative Bz reaching -17nT, after which Bz stayed mostly positive. A jump in solar wind speed from 333 km/s at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 432 km/s at 13:34 and sharp increases in temperature to near 200,000 K at 13:34Z and in density initially to 12 p/cc and eventually to 45 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-17T13:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-17T03:01Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-14 13:53
 - Time at C2: 2024-08-14 08:23
 - Radial speed: 616.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N19E04
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 590.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-17 03:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.63 hours)
Lead Time: 64.48 hour(s)
Difference: 10.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-08-14T21:00Z
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